‘The USA is a power in decline.’ Discuss.
Two contrasting images of global order have emerged since the end of the Cold War. One suggests that a unipolar world order has emerged in which the USA operates as a ‘global hegemon’. Alternatively, the end of the Cold War bipolarity is seen to be giving way to the rise of a multipolar world order, in which, for a number of reasons, the USA no longer functions as the world’s sole superpower.
• The view that the USA has emerged as an unchallengeable power, no longer merely a superpower but a ‘hyperpower’, can be defended in a number of ways, including the following. The strongest basis for arguing that a uniploar world order has come into existence is the USA’s huge and increasing military lead over the rest of the world. For example, the USA’s military spending in 2007 was nine times greater than China’s, the second largest. The USA’s technological lead over other countries is also almost unassailable, accounting for about 40 per cent of world spending on research and development. US power is also underpinned by its growing population, expected to rise from 305 million to 439 million by 2050, and by the highly educated and skilled nature of the US population, particularly in areas such as science and high technology. The USA, furthermore, retains enormous structural power, reflected in the considerable influence it exerts over institutions such as the WTO, IMF and World Bank, and in the role of the dollar as the world’s leading currency.
• However, the USA has also been viewed as a power in decline. Perhaps the most important factor has been the rise of emerging powers, notably China, India and Russia. The USA’s relative importance on the world stage, has undoubtedly been affected by the dramatic growth of the Chinese economy, which is widely predicted to outstrip the US economy by 2020 if not before. Some, indeed, argue that the centre of gravity of world 12politics and the global economy is in the process of shifting from a US-dominated West to a Chinese-dominated East. This was dramatically demonstrated by the global economic crisis that emerged in 2008. This crisis has affected the standing of the US dollar and, arguably, hastened the relative economic decline of the USA. US decline can also be seen in its loss of ‘soft’ power, partly resulting from the damage done to its moral authority by the ‘war on terror’ generally, and the Iraq war in particular. Prolonged involvement in counter-insurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has revived concerns about the USA’s ‘imperial-overreach’. The Obama administration has confronted major challenges in trying to address both the USA’s economic and foreign-policy problems.